Crude Oil: Brent & WTI Report

Market Volatility and Price Movements

Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have fluctuated due to shifting supply and demand dynamics, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments. Brent crude settled at $70.06 per barrel on March 4, reflecting a 1.4% decline, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.2% to $68.26 per barrel. Concerns over potential oversupply and slowing economic growth have influenced market sentiment.

Demand Outlook and Economic Indicators

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth estimate down to 1.03 million barrels per day, citing escalating trade tensions and new U.S. tariffs that could hinder economic expansion. This downward revision has raised concerns about a potential supply surplus.

Individual Producer Adjustments

Kazakhstan exceeded its OPEC+ production quota in February 2025, hitting record output levels as the Tengiz field ramped up. The country has committed to reducing output in March, April, and May to align with OPEC+ targets.

What’s Next for Crude Oil?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude will average $75 per barrel in Q3 2025, anticipating tight global oil markets through mid-2025. However, the EIA expects oil inventories to build later in the year, which could place downward pressure on prices. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding future OPEC+ production decisions and potential geopolitical disruptions will continue to influence the market. Investors and analysts will closely watch U.S. interest rate policies, global economic indicators, and upcoming production reports for further direction.

Sources:

Reuters: “Brent settles down, hits six-month low on output rise, tariffs” (March 4, 2025)

Wall Street Journal: “IEA Says Trade Tensions Weigh on Oil Demand, Warns of Supply Surplus” (March 13, 2025)

Reuters: “CERAWEEK: Kazakhstan in talks with oil majors to cut output” (March 10, 2025)

U.S. Energy Information Administration: “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (March 2025)

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